Upcoming Solar Cycles
James A. Marusek
8 May 2007
The moon gravitationally interact with the Earth producing tidal forces that control the cycle of ocean tides on our planet. In a similar manner the planets gravitationally interact with the sun exerting tidal forces. As a result, the sun wobbles slightly back and forth as it circles the center of the galaxy. Dr. Will Alexander theorizes this gravitational force is also responsible for the solar sunspot cycle. http://www.BreadAndButterScience.com/Alexander.pdf
Scientist feel they have developed sufficient understanding to predict the intensity of future sunspot cycles. The next sunspot cycle is solar cycle 24. A Prediction Panel was hosted on 25 April 2007 with officials from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other agencies. They issued a consensus statement http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html which came to the conclusion that the next solar cycle could be severe peaking at ~ 140 International Sunspot Numbers (Ri) or moderate at ~ 90 Ri.
David C. Archibald recently issues a paper discussing the intensity of Solar Cycles 24 & 25. http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/Archibald.pdf He is forecasting a low intensity solar cycle with a peak Ri of approximately 50 for each cycle.
Solar cycle forecasting as a science is still in its infancy. So time will tell which forecasting tool possesses the greatest accuracy. But if David Archibald's solar cycle forecast is correct, it will more than likely expose a grand paradox. The paradox is that carbon dioxide levels will continue to rise in solar cycle 24 while at the same time global temperatures will fall rather dramatically. This is because temperature drives carbon dioxide levels rather than the other way around. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere always follow major temperature shifts. It will also reveal that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) models have failed to adequately assess the effects of natural climatic drivers, specifically the effects of clouds and the ability of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) as climatic force drivers.
NOAA provides a website that tracks on a monthly basis the intensity of the solar cycle. http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html Currently the intensity is very weak bordering on the Lower Prediction Threshold. I suspect that we will have a fairly good idea of the intensity of solar cycle 24 by the end of 2008. And if David Archibald's forecast is correct, the temperature drop should be very observeable.